The Gazette 1983

NOVEMBER 1983

GAZETTE

Acomplete pension service

of fact with odds against these facts occurring. Although the facts may not be open to challenge he may imperil his evidence by giving the probabilistic odds. One has only to consider the small size of our population to realise that odds of 2 million to 1 are meaningless in a male population of less than 2 million. It would be a poor advocate who could not attack the basis of a probabilistic statement and if the expert witness is thrown then the facts themselves may be put in question. The law has never defined "probability". In mens rea, we can identify graduated levels of intent rising from the defendant knowing the result of his action would be "possible", or "probable" or "certain" which are all simply different levels of probability in legal terms. The methods of mathematics might better serve the law in providing a more accurate framework for analysis through the routine testing of hypotheses. In this way we could aspire to legal probability being assisted by the methods adopted by science to the greater understanding of all concerned. •

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• Mr. O'Connor is presently reading for the Bar in King's Inns.

(Footnotes) 1. [ 1947] 2 All ER 372 at p.373. 2. Ibid, at p. 374. 3. [1972] 1 All ER 1096 (Ch.D.) and [1974] 1 All ER 551. 4. A. J. Ayer Probability and Evidence. Part 1. Chapters 2 and 3.

5. H. Bracton Laws and Customs of England. 6. Denning, M. R. What next in the Ixtw? at p.5. 7. People -v- Collins [ 1968] 438p 2d. 33.

8. D.P.P. -v- Kinlan [1978] Central Criminal Court — unreported. 9. D. V. Lindley "Probability and law". The Statistican Volume 26 No. 3. 10. M. Stuart, "Statistics and Probabilities as legal evidence" Dublin University I MW Journal (1981) at p. 54. 11. A. J. Cohen. The Probable and the Provable (1977). 12. Sir R. Eggleston Evidence, Proof and Probability (197K); see also J. D. Jackson, "Probability and Mathematics in Court Eact-Einding" Northern Ireland Legal Quarterly. Vol. 31, No. 3 Autumn 1980, p.239.

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