The Gazette 1983

NOVEMBER 1983

GAZETTE

The Development of a Scientific Theory.

attempted to show odds of 12 million to 1 against any couple other than the accused having committed the robbery. He failed dismally. Using the formal analytical approach of science he might have simply gathered the available facts as a first step. These facts would then be analysed conceptually for the purpose of setting up a number of hypotheses for testing. An example would be "if witnesses were present then they would probably identify directly" or "if the accused carried out the robbery then they would probably be in possession of the loot". In this way, via a series of hypotheses the prosecu- tion/defence could scientifically analyse the probabilities

of the case before the hearing and form conclusions based on the facts. The case would then rest on the facts being presented as concepts in a tested hypothesis. There would be no need for explanation as to the procedure being adopted, as the presentation of the case would be straight- forward, sensible and logical since it rests on the relevant facts presented in a tightly knit manner. It is apparent on this analysis that there is no future for probability theory being applied to all the evidence in any case as it would give too many opportunities for successful challenge. The expert witness may attempt to bolster his evidence 251